@article{Parfi_Taghiakbari_Achore_Gautrin_Bezgin_Suarthana_2021, title={A prognostic model of excessive lung function decline among Québec apprentices: a cohort exposed to occupational sensitizing agents}, volume={30}, url={http://mji.ui.ac.id/journal/index.php/mji/article/view/4530}, DOI={10.13181/mji.oa.204530}, abstractNote={<p><strong>BACKGROUND</strong> Forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV<sub>1</sub>) decline as a predictor of lung-related health problems is widely observed, but not fully investigated. This study aimed to develop models to predict FEV<sub>1</sub> decline among apprentices exposed to sensitizing agents.</p> <p><strong>METHODS</strong> Of 692 apprentices recruited and followed in 3.6–17.3 years, 292 were exposed to low-molecular weight agents. The analysis was restricted to 357 apprentices with complete lung function assessment at the end of their training with a minimum of 5-year follow-up. According to the American Thoracic Society guideline, a mean FEV₁ decline &gt;60 ml/year was defined as “accelerated.” Descriptive statistics and Cox regression analysis were utilized to determine its predictors. To develop the prognostic models, we used a logistic regression analysis adjusted for the follow-up duration. The accuracy of the models was quantified using calibration and discrimination measures.</p> <p><strong>RESULTS</strong> Of 357 subjects, 62 (17.4%) had an excessive FEV<sub>1</sub> decline post-apprenticeship. The questionnaire model (model 1), which included male sex, wheezing, and exposure to isocyanate or animal allergens during the apprenticeship, showed a reasonable discriminative ability (area under the receiver operating characteristics curve [AUC] of 0.67, 95% CI = 0.59–0.75). Adding the percent-predicted FEV₁ value at the end of apprenticeship significantly increased the discriminative ability of the model (model 4) (AUC = 0.762, 95% CI = 0.694–0.829) with a good calibration and reasonable internal validity.</p> <p><strong>CONCLUSIONS</strong> We developed a model for accelerated lung function decline with a good accuracy and internal validity. However, external validation of the model is necessary.</p&gt;}, number={1}, journal={Medical Journal of Indonesia}, author={Parfi, Alfi Afadiyanti and Taghiakbari, Mahsa and Achore, Meshack and Gautrin, Denyse and Bezgin, Gleb and Suarthana, Eva}, year={2021}, month={Mar.}, pages={45-53} }