Validation of EuroSCORE II to predict mortality in post-cardiac surgery patients in East Java tertiary hospital

  • Yan Efrata Sembiring Department of Thoracic Cardiac and Vascular Surgery, Faculty of Medicine, Universitas Airlangga, Soetomo General Hospital, Surabaya, Indonesia https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1712-1816
  • Adhitya Ginting Department of Thoracic Cardiac and Vascular Surgery, Faculty of Medicine, Universitas Airlangga, Soetomo General Hospital, Surabaya, Indonesia https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6341-5567
  • Puruhito Department of Thoracic Cardiac and Vascular Surgery, Faculty of Medicine, Universitas Airlangga, Soetomo General Hospital, Surabaya, Indonesia
  • Budiono Department of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, Universitas Airlangga, Surabaya, Indonesia https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0969-901X
DOI: https://doi.org/10.13181/mji.oa.204536
Keywords: cardiac surgery, mortality, prognosis, treatment outcome
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Abstract

BACKGROUND The European system for cardiac operative risk evaluation (EuroSCORE) II is one of the established risk models used to predict mortality after cardiac surgery. However, its application as a mortality predictor for Indonesian adult cardiac surgery is still unknown. This study aimed to examine the validation of EuroSCORE II in predicting the mortality following adult cardiac surgery in Indonesian adults.

METHODS This retrospective cohort study collected data from the medical records and the database of the Department of Thoracic Cardiac and Vascular Surgery at Soetomo General Hospital, Surabaya. Data on the EuroSCORE II variables were collected for patients aged >18 years who underwent coronary artery bypass, heart valve, heart tumors, aortic surgeries, or a combination of these surgeries between January 2016 and December 2018. In-hospital mortality prediction was calculated using the online calculator at www.euroscore.org. The calibration of the EuroSCORE II model was conducted using the Hosmer–Lemeshow test, and discrimination analysis was done using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves with area under the ROC curve (AUC) calculation.

RESULTS A total of 213 patients met the inclusion criteria and were analyzed for this study. Mortality was 8.9%. The predicted and actual mortalities were 1.74% and 8.9%, respectively. The significance (p-value) of the Hosmer–Lemeshow test was 0.55, indicating good calibration. The AUC of ROC curve was 0.85 (95% CI = 0.77–0.92, p<0.001), suggesting good discrimination.

CONCLUSIONS EuroSCORE II has a good calibration and discrimination for cardiac surgery in Indonesian adults.

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Published
2021-03-31
How to Cite
1.
Sembiring YE, Ginting A, Puruhito, Budiono. Validation of EuroSCORE II to predict mortality in post-cardiac surgery patients in East Java tertiary hospital. Med J Indones [Internet]. 2021Mar.31 [cited 2024Apr.27];30(1):54-9. Available from: http://mji.ui.ac.id/journal/index.php/mji/article/view/4536
Issue
Vol. 30 No. 1 (2021): March
Section
Clinical Research

Copyright (c) 2021 Yan Efrata Sembiring, Adhitya Ginting, Puruhito, Budiono

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